Desperate Falcons, Fading Panthers Battle at Georgia Dome
Football Betting Lines
12/22/2006 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Falcons hope to take advantage of a Carolina Panthers team in disarray and record a much-needed victory when the two rivals
square off this Sunday at the Georgia Dome.
This late-December matchup was thought to be the game that would decide the
NFC South champion heading into this season, but things haven't quite gone to
plan for either team. While New Orleans has run away with the division crown,
the Falcons are battling for their playoff lives and the Panthers -- the
consensus preseason favorite in the South -- have seen their postseason
chances basically go up in smoke because of a current four-game losing streak.
Atlanta is currently tied with the New York Giants for the NFC's final Wild
Card berth, but the Giants own the tiebreaker by virtue of a 27-14 win over
the Falcons back in October. And with a tough game on the road against the
resurgent Philadelphia Eagles looming next week, a win against the reeling
Panthers is vital to Atlanta's playoff fortunes.
The Falcons weren't in this predicament at midseason, when the club got off to
a 5-2 start and stood in the thick of the NFC South race. However, losses in
five of its last seven games, including last Saturday's 38-28 setback to
Dallas, have put Atlanta's once-promising season on the brink.
A performance out of Michael Vick like the four-touchdown effort the exciting
but erratic quarterback produced through the air against the Cowboys would go
a long way towards strengthening the Falcons' position. The athletic signal-
caller wound up leaving that game in the final stages because of a groin
strain, although Vick is expected to be back under center for this one.
Carolina finds itself in even more dire straits than Atlanta. The
disappointing Panthers come in with four straight losses under their belts and
suffered a humiliating 37-3 shellacking at home to Pittsburgh last week, the
franchise's most lopsided defeat since a 41-0 debacle against the Falcons in
2002.
The two most recent losses came without the services of quarterback Jake
Delhomme, who has a ligament tear in his right thumb and is unlikely to play
again this week. That would still leave the offense in the shaky hands of
Chris Weinke, who has guided the Panthers to victory just once in 17 career
starts.
SERIES HISTORY
The Falcons lead the all-time series with Carolina, 15-8, including a 20-6
road victory when the teams met in Week 1. The Panthers swept last year's
home-and-home, claiming a 24-6 decision in Charlotte in Week 13 and a 44-11
rout at the Georgia Dome in Week 17. Prior to 2005, Atlanta had won nine of
their last 10 overall against the Panthers, including their own home-and-home
sweep in 2004.
Carolina's John Fox enters Sunday's contest with a 3-6 career mark against
Atlanta, while the Falcons' Jim Mora is 3-2 against both Fox and Carolina as a
head coach.
PANTHERS OFFENSE VS. FALCONS DEFENSE
It's been a struggle for Weinke (593 passing yards, 1 TD, 4 INT) since the
former Heisman Trophy winner was forced into action because of Delhomme's
injury. The 34-year-old, who hadn't played regularly since his rookie campaign
of 2001, did throw for a career-best 423 yards in Carolina's 27-13 loss to the
Giants in Week 14, but also had three costly picks which contributed to his
team's demise. Weinke then failed to move the offense last week against
Pittsburgh, although he didn't get a whole lot of support from a mediocre and
banged-up offensive line that's been a sore spot for the Panthers all year
long. Carolina ranks just 27th in the league in scoring (16.4 ppg), partly
because game-breaking wide receiver Steve Smith (76 receptions, 1,081 yards, 6
TD) has been the offense's lone legitimate big-play threat. Veteran Keyshawn
Johnson (66 receptions, 770 yards, 4 TD) has also had a good season opposite
Smith, and Drew Carter (28 receptions, 357 yards, 3 TD) has emerged as a
reliable option as the third receiver. Carter sprained an ankle during the
Pittsburgh game, however, and could be unavailable on Sunday.
Weinke's numbers could very well improve against an Atlanta defense that has
surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league (236.2 ypg) and was
powerless in its attempts to stop Dallas' Tony Romo, who rolled up 278 yards
and completed 22 of 29 throws last week. The secondary does possess a Pro Bowl
player in DeAngelo Hall (54 tackles, 4 INT, 10 PBU), although the cocky corner
is coming off a rough outing against the Cowboys in which he was beaten for a
pair of touchdowns by Terrell Owens. The beleaguered unit may get a boost by
the hopeful return of cornerback Jason Webster (49 tackles, 2 INT), who has
missed six straight games with a groin injury but is now back practicing. The
Falcons have compiled a respectable 34 sacks on the season, and should be able
to pressure the immobile Weinke, who has been sacked seven times in his two
starts, provided brittle end John Abraham (17 tackles, 4 sacks) can be
effective after tearing a ligament in his left thumb last week. The pass-rush
specialist had a monster game in Atlanta's Week 1 win over the Panthers,
producing six tackles, two sacks and a pair of forced fumbles.
A contributing factor to Carolina's offensive woes has been the season-long
dormant status of a running game that played a key role in the club's run to
last year's NFC title game. The Panthers rank 27th out of 32 NFL teams in
rushing yards (97.9 ypg) despite having a pair of quality halfbacks in DeShaun
Foster (716 rushing yards, 2 TD) and rookie DeAngelo Williams (412 yards, 1
TD). The problems can again be traced back to the play up front, where season-
ending injuries to center Justin Hartwig, tackle Travelle Wharton and now
guard Mike Wahle, who was placed on IR Wednesday because of a torn right
labrum, have wreaked havoc on the unit. The makeshift line couldn't
effectively block the Steelers last week, as Carolina mustered only 43 yards
on the ground.
Atlanta has been solid in defending the run, as the Falcons are allowing just
102.2 rushing yards per game (10th overall) on the season. A deep linebacking
corps led by five-time Pro Bowler Keith Brooking (120 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is
the strength of the defense. Strongside starter Michael Boley (63 tackles, 2
sacks) has enjoyed a breakout second season and the oft-injured Edgerton
Hartwell (21 tackles, 1 sack) has been a stabilizing presence in the middle
when able to play. The offseason additions of beefy tackle Grady Jackson (31
tackles) and strong safety Lawyer Milloy (86 tackles, 1 sack) have also
bolstered a run defense that was one of the league's worst a year ago.
FALCONS OFFENSE VS. PANTHERS DEFENSE
The Falcons emphasize the run more than any NFL club, and are headed for their
third consecutive team rushing title. Atlanta averages an impressive 192.6
yards per game on the ground, a number that's aided by Vick's elusiveness out
of the pocket. The dynamic playmaker needs just 10 yards to become the first
quarterback in league history to rush for 1,000 in a season, but his
effectiveness as a scrambler may be hindered by his injury. Veteran Warrick
Dunn (1,053 yards, 4 TD) eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight
year in the Dallas game, although the diminutive back hasn't had more than 87
yards in any of the team's last nine contests. Speedy rookie Jerious Norwood
(550 yards, 2 TD) is averaging a healthy 6.5 yards per rush, and should be
available to contribute after sitting out last week due to a sore knee.
Atlanta racked up a whopping 252 yards on the Panthers in the season opener,
with Dunn amassing 132 on 29 carries.
Carolina ranked fourth overall in rushing yards allowed (91.6 ypg) in 2005 but
is yielding more than 20 yards per game in that area this season. The season-
ending loss of middle linebacker Dan Morgan has had a crippling effect on the
defense, as ex-Falcon Chris Draft (88 tackles, 4 sacks) has been steady but
unspectacular in his place. Tackle Kris Jenkins (38 tackles, 2.5 sacks) was
named to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday, but that honor may have been based more on
reputation then performance. The fastest member of the front seven is second-
year linebacker Thomas Davis (84 tackles, 1.5 sacks), who likely will draw the
unenviable assignment of trying to contain Vick. If the Panthers are to
succeed on Sunday, the defense must improve on the 159 rushing yards it
surrendered in last week's defeat to Pittsburgh.
Atlanta's prowess running the ball is well-documented, but the team sits on
the opposite end of the spectrum in the passing game. The Falcons are
averaging a league-low 147 yards per contest through the air, although Vick
(2,284 passing yards, 11 INT) has thrown for a career-best 19 touchdowns this
year. He's only completed 52.8 percent of his passes, however, with the low
figure partially due to a season-long rash of drops from the receivers. Vick's
favorite target remains Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler (677 receiving yards,
7 TD), who leads Atlanta with 47 catches. The offense would greatly benefit
from added consistency from the wideout group of Michael Jenkins (36
receptions, 408 yards, 7 TD), Roddy White (25 receptions, 404 yards) and
Ashley Lelie (25 receptions, 390 yards, 1 TD), all former No. 1 picks. Jenkins
and unheralded fullback Justin Griffith (22 receptions, 3 TD) have been
effective within the red zone, though, with Griffith snaring two of Vick's
four TD tosses versus Dallas.
The Panthers stand a respectable 10th overall in passing yards allowed (190.7
ypg), although the secondary hasn't been the big-play contingent it was a year
ago. Carolina's quality cornerback duo of Chris Gamble (56 tackles, 2 INT) and
Ken Lucas (27 tackles, 2 INT) has battled injuries throughout the season,
which has provided increased playing time for promising youngster Richard
Marshall (72 tackles, 3 INT, 10 PBU). Rushing the passer, normally an area of
strength for Carolina, has been a problem during the current losing streak,
mostly because superstar Julius Peppers (55 tackles, 11 sacks, 3 forced
fumbles) has been held in check lately. The All-Pro end has failed to register
a sack in five consecutive games. Compounding matters is the season-ending
knee injury that veteran Mike Rucker (39 tackles, 5 sacks) suffered during
last week's loss. Dependable reserve Al Wallace (21 tackles, 2 sacks) will
start opposite Peppers in Rucker's place.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Atlanta has plenty of incentive for this game that goes beyond the obvious
playoff ramifications. The Panthers humiliated the Falcons at the Georgia Dome
in the 2005 regular-season finale, a loss that was a driving force for
Atlanta's relatively easy 20-6 triumph at Carolina in Week 1. The Panthers'
lack of effectiveness on offense and recent struggles stopping the run should
allow the Falcons to control the clock and grind out a methodical win much
like the season-opener. Weinke's dubious credentials under center and
Carolina's history of not playing well in the Georgia Dome, where the Panthers
had lost seven straight prior to last year's breakthrough, don't inspire
confidence for the visitors either.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Falcons 20, Panthers 10
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Big East Conference odds
Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence
 Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.
Work left to do:
Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.
Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.
DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...
West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.
Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.
For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com
For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com
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