Niners Need Win Over Cardinals, Help From Seahawks
Football Betting Lines
12/22/2006 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If any member of the San Francisco 49ers' player roster,
coaching staff, or front office claims not to be paying attention to the out-
of-town scoreboard on Sunday afternoon, they're lying.
While the 49ers (6-8) do battle with the Arizona Cardinals (4-10) at Monster
Park, the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks (8-6) will be entertaining the San Diego Chargers (12-2) roughly 800 miles to the north. A victory for the Niners
coupled with a loss for the Seahawks will give Week 17 definite playoff
meaning for the San Francisco franchise, which is major news for an
organization just recently removed from a stretch of 35 losses in 45 games.
The new-found excitement in the City by the Bay comes on the heels of last
Thursday's 24-14 win at Seattle, a victory that completed the Niners' home-
and-home sweep of the reigning NFC Champions and kept Mike Nolan's team in the
hunt for the NFC West title. If things go according to plan Sunday, San
Francisco would be one game back with one to play.
The 49ers travel to meet Denver in Week 17, while the Seahawks take one of the
NFL's longest trips to Tampa Bay. Though it is conceivable that an 8-8 San
Francisco team could earn a Wild Card berth through some convoluted tie-
breaking scenario, a two-game stretch of losses for Seattle is the least mind-
bending way for the 49ers to get back to the postseason for the first time
since 2002.
Without a win over Arizona, however, the point will be moot, and the Niners
are not sufficiently dominant at this stage to overlook any opponent. The
Cardinals also have a win of recent vintage over the Seahawks, a 27-21 victory
in Week 14, but Dennis Green's club followed up a 3-1 stretch with last
Sunday's 37-20 home loss to the Broncos.
SERIES HISTORY
San Francisco has a 17-13 lead in its all-time series with the Cardinals, but
has dropped three in a row to Arizona. The Cardinals opened University of
Phoenix Stadium with a 34-27 win over San Francisco in Week 1, and also swept
a pair of games against its NFC West rival last season. The Niners were 17-10
losers when Arizona visited Monster Park in Week 13. Prior to 2005, the 49ers
had prevailed in eight of the previous nine head-to-head meetings. The Niners
won by identical 31-28 marks, both in overtime, in a 2004 home-and-home.
Green is 5-7 in his career against San Francisco, including 3-2 since taking
over in Arizona in 2004. Green's Vikings were 38-22 losers to the 49ers in a
1997 NFC Divisional Playoff. Green was an assistant with San Francisco in
1979, and again from 1986 to 1988. San Francisco's Nolan is 0-3 against both
Green and the Cardinals as a head coach.
CARDINALS OFFENSE VS. 49ERS DEFENSE
It would take an extraordinary effort in his final two games, but Cardinals
rookie quarterback Matt Leinart (2385 passing yards, 10 TD, 12 INT) is within
reachable distance of the 3,000-yard plateau, which would make him the first
Arizona signal-caller since Jake Plummer in 2001 to hit that number. Peyton
Manning is the only other quarterback in NFL history to go over 3,000 in his
rookie season, doing so in 16 games as opposed to what would be 13 for
Leinart. The 2004 Heisman winner, who has a 400-yard game to his credit
already this season, would need to average 307.5 passing yards in his final
two games to break 3,000. Last week, Leinart threw for 214 yards with two
interceptions, helping wideout Anquan Boldin (75 receptions, 4 TD) cross the
1,000-yard barrier for the third time in his four-year career. Fellow receiver
Larry Fitzgerald (61 receptions, 4 TD), who had a team-best 77 yards on five
grabs against Denver, needs 180 yards over his final two contests to break
1,000 for a second straight year. Third receiver Bryant Johnson (33
receptions, 4 TD) has done a solid job all season. The Arizona line has
surrendered 32 sacks on the campaign, including three last Sunday.
The 49ers rank just 27th in the league against the pass (222.3 yards per
game), but the secondary has shown a propensity for playmaking during the
season's second half. Cornerback Shawntae Spencer (55 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT)
and safety Mark Roman (53 tackles, 1 INT) both had interceptions off of the
Seahawks' Matt Hasselbeck last week, and corner Walt Harris (52 tackles, 6
INT, 1 sack), who ranks among NFL leaders with six picks, had a forced fumble.
The pass rush ranks near the bottom of the league with just 29 sacks, but did
break through to Hasselbeck three times in a winning effort. Rookie pass
rusher Manny Lawson (50 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT) notched one of the sacks.
Linebacker Brandon Moore (6.5 sacks) and defensive lineman Bryant Young (5.5
sacks) are tops on the team at getting to the quarterback.
Although it looked at times this season like he might not reach the milestone,
Cardinals running back Edgerrin James (988 rushing yards, 5 TD, 37 receptions)
is just 12 yards shy of becoming Arizona's first 1,000-yard rusher since
Adrian Murrell in 1998. James failed to extend his string of 100-yard games to
three last week, when the Broncos limited him to 63 yards on 14 carries, but
James did score his fifth touchdown of the year in the game. The ex-Colt
rushed 26 times for 73 yards and a score against the 49ers in Week 1. Backup
Marcel Shipp (28 rushing yards, 3 TD), who made headlines with a three-
touchdown game against the Rams in Week 13, missed the Denver tilt with
sore ribs but is set to return on Sunday. The Cardinals are tied for 30th in
the league in rushing offense (79.8 yards per game), and dead last in yards
per carry (3.1).
The 49ers rank 18th in the league against the rush (121.3 yards per game), and
come off a week in which they held reigning NFL MVP Shaun Alexander to 73
yards on 23 carries (3.2 yards per attempt). The push was led by the front
line, where Young (47 tackles) and fellow lineman Melvin Oliver (37 tackles)
combined for 10 tackles. Moore paced the linebackers with 10 stops of his own,
and that line of defense will get a break if Derek Smith (66 tackles), who led
San Francisco in stops before suffering a hamstring injury against the Saints
in Week 13, is able to return. Smith is regarded as questionable for this
week.
49ERS OFFENSE VS. CARDINALS DEFENSE
The ascendancy of 49ers running back Frank Gore (1491 rushing yards, 53
receptions, 7 TD) continued on Tuesday, when the second-year-pro was selected
to start for the NFC in the 2007 Pro Bowl. Gore leads the NFC in rushing as
Week 16 begins, and is 80 yards shy of breaking the franchise single-season
record of 1,570, set by Garrison Hearst in 1998. The Miami-Florida product has
gone over 100 yards in five of his last six games, including his 29-carry,
144-yard, one-touchdown effort in Seattle last Thursday. Gore, who also had a
touchdown catch last week, began his season with an 87-yard, two-TD game
against the Cardinals in Week 1, but also lost a fumble in that defeat. Short-
yardage back Michael Robinson's (116 rushing yards, 2 TD, 7 receptions) only
carry against the Seahawks went for 33 yards and set up a Joe Nedney field
goal.
Gore will be operating against an Arizona defense that ranks just 16th in the
league against the run (119.9 yards per game), but did a credible job against
Denver and its vaunted zone-blocking scheme last Sunday. Broncos running backs
Tatum Bell and Mike Bell combined for just 90 yards on 34 carries (2.7 yards
per carry), though the latter Bell did help seal the Cardinals' epitaph with
two fourth-quarter touchdown runs. The linebacking crew of Gerald Hayes (93
tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) in the middle and Orlando Huff (57 tackles) and Karlos
Dansby (65 tackles, 5 sacks) on the outside was extremely active in the loss,
with Huff posting a game-high 12 tackles and Hayes and Dansby notching eight
stops each. Tackles Darnell Dockett (49 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and Kendrick
Clancy (24 tackles, 1 sack) will be among those looking to slow Gore at the
point of attack.
San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith (2506 passing yards, 15 TD, 14 INT)
didn't put up eye-popping numbers in last week's win over the Seahawks, but
his fourth-quarter performance was held up as a coming-of-age moment. Smith
led three touchdown drives to turn a 7-3 deficit to a 24-7 lead, throwing
back-to-back scoring strikes to Vernon Davis (13 receptions, 3 TD) and Frank
Gore and capping the night with a back-breaking 18-yard TD run in the waning
moments. For the night, the 2005 No. 1 overall pick completed 14-of-25 passes
for 162 yards and two scores. No. 1 wideout Antonio Bryant (40 receptions, 3
TD) had a quiet evening with two catches for 16 yards, but No. 2 receiver
Arnaz Battle (48 receptions, 3 TD) came up big with a career-high 97 yards on
five grabs. Bryant went for 114 yards against Arizona in Week 1, but has just
one more 100-yard game since. Davis has a TD in each of his last two contests.
The San Francisco offensive line has surrendered 27 sacks on the year, but did
not give one up last week.
Smith should be able to find some holes in an Arizona defense that ranks 30th
in the NFL (235.9 yards per game) against aerial attacks, and allowed Broncos
quarterback Jay Cutler to have the game of his young career last Sunday.
Cutler threw for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns with an interception
versus the Cardinals, with his 54-yard touchdown pass to Javon Walker early in
the first quarter setting the tone for the Arizona loss. Cornerbacks Antrel
Rolle (81 tackles) and David Macklin (34 tackles, 1 INT) will have to do a
better job against the likes of Bryant and Battle this week, and safeties
Adrian Wilson (76 tackles, 4 sacks, 4 INT) and Robert Griffith (66 tackles, 3
INT) must lend the requisite support. Griffith had the team's only
interception off of Cutler last week. Wilson and receiver Anquan Boldin were
both named to the NFC Pro Bowl squad on Tuesday. The Arizona pass rush is led
by ends Chike Okeafor (40 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and Antonio Smith (24 tackles,
2.5 sacks), both of whom registered an impact against Denver. Okeafor had a
sack and two forced fumbles in the loss, and one of those fumbles was picked
up by Smith for a four-yard touchdown return.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The 49ers have yet to show that they can win a game they are widely expected
to win, which makes this week's meeting with the Cardinals somewhat worrying.
In order for San Francisco to take the next step, flexing its muscles against
an inferior opponent on its home field is a must. Look for the 49ers to come
out with enough intensity and confidence to overcome any mistakes that a
still-young team will undoubtedly make, and look for Nolan's club to head into
Week 17 with a shot to play in January.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: 49ers 20, Cardinals 15
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a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
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