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Will Bears Take it Easy on Lions?

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12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bears will have to put together a plan of attack for Sunday's game at the Detroit Lions, and that strategy will have little to do with run-pass balance, taking shots down the field, or safety blitzes.

The NFC North Champion Bears, who have already clinched homefield advantage throughout the conference portion of the postseason, must decide how much to play the principal members of their 12-2 team, if at all. Should Chicago, which hasn't won a playoff game since 1994, hold its stars out to reduce the risk of injury in a contest that will have no impact on the standings? Or should head coach Lovie Smith keep his guns a-blazing in order to carry a measure of momentum into the postseason?

This situation has recent precedent in Bears annals, as Chicago rested most of its starters in last year's regular season finale against the Vikings (a 34-10 loss), and was promptly beaten on its home field by the Carolina Panthers in its initial postseason game.

Perhaps it is the memory of that disappointment that led Smith to tell reporters earlier this week, "We want to stay as sharp as possible. There's no reason for a vacation, guys. We have a game to play, and it's kind of as simple as that."

Added quarterback Rex Grossman, "We're not saving any plays or doing anything different. We're trying to win the game."

Whether or not those musings represent just so much lip service remains to be seen, though the struggling Lions probably wouldn't mind if Chicago decided to reverse course and lay up.

Detroit (2-12) enters Week 16 tied with Oakland for the league's worst record, and has a slight strength-of-schedule edge on the Raiders for the top pick in the 2007 Draft. The Lions will on Sunday be looking to avoid their seventh straight loss, which would be the longest skid for the franchise since it dropped the final eight games of the 2002 campaign.

SERIES HISTORY

Chicago leads the all-time series with Detroit, which dates back to the 1930 season, 86-62-5. The Bears were 34-7 home winners when the teams met in Week 2, and also swept a home-and-home against the Lions last season. Chicago was a 19-13 overtime victor when it visited Ford Field in Week 8 of the 2005 campaign. Detroit swept its home-and-home against Chicago in 2004.

Smith is 3-2 against the Lions as a head coach. Detroit's Rod Marinelli is 0-1 against both Smith and the Bears as a head man.

Incidentally, Smith and Marinelli were once roommates when each served as assistant coaches for Tampa Bay in the mid-1990's.

BEARS OFFENSE VS. LIONS DEFENSE

Grossman (2963 passing yards, 22 TD, 17 INT) is eager to build on two consecutive strong performances, which included last week's impressive effort in a 34-31 overtime win over the Buccaneers. Grossman posted his first career 300-yard game, completing 29-of-44 passes for 339 yards with a pair of touchdowns and not turning the ball over for a second straight week. The fourth-year-pro has a mediocre passer rating of 77.5 as Week 16 begins. Tight end Desmond Clark (42 receptions, 6 TD) had a career day against the Bucs, catching seven passes for 125 yards and both of Grossman's touchdowns, while wideouts Muhsin Muhammad (56 receptions, 5 TD) and Bernard Berrian (45 receptions, 5 TD) moved the chains with six catches each, totaling 118 yards. If Smith pulls the starters, quarterback Brian Griese figures to be passing to the likes of Rashied Davis (19 receptions, 2 TD), Mark Bradley (10 receptions, 2 TD), and tight end John Gilmore (6 receptions, 2 TD). Up front, tackle John Tait and guard Ruben Brown are both listed on the injury report, and are strong candidates to be held out on Sunday.

The Lions will have a rare piece of injury-related luck heading into Sunday's game, as starting cornerback Fernando Bryant (46 tackles) is set to return after missing the team's last two games with a concussion. Bryant will likely start opposite Dre' Bly (43 tackles, 3 INT), with Terrence Holt (70 tackles, 3 INT) and Kenoy Kennedy (54 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) assuming their familiar safety slots. Bly tallied his third interception of the year in last week's 17-9 loss to the Packers, while Kennedy finished with eight tackles. Jared DeVries (20 tackles) and Kalimba Edwards (30 tackles, 2 INT) have been the team's starters at end of late, though under tackle Cory Redding (43 tackles, 7 sacks) has been the club's most productive pass-rusher from his interior position. Edwards did manage a sack of Brett Favre last Sunday, just his second in nine starts this season. The Lions are allowing opponents to complete a league-high 66.8 percent of passes, and their 24 sacks are tied for 27th in the NFL.

Foremost among the Bears' stars that don't figure to be in uniform on Sunday is running back Thomas Jones (1121 rushing yards, 6 TD, 33 receptions), who is officially listed as questionable with sore ribs. Jones' potential absence would normally spell more touches for backup Cedric Benson (489 rushing yards, 6 TD), but since Benson has become a more prominent part of the offensive game plan in recent weeks, third-string back Adrian Peterson (36 rushing yards, 1 TD) could end up logging the team's most significant number of backfield touches. Benson has 31 carries for 117 yards and a touchdown in his last two games combined. Peterson had two carries totaling 13 yards against the Bucs.

If there is a strength on the Detroit defense, it probably lies with a linebacking corps that has done an admirable job this season. Rookie and first-round draft pick Ernie Sims (116 tackles) has been a quiet force from his outside position, and middle man Paris Lenon (59 tackles, 1 INT) comes off a week in which he had eight tackles and the first interception of his five- year NFL career. On the interior line, the Lions were dealt a blow when tackle Marcus Bell (39 tackles, 1 sack) was placed on injured reserve earlier this week due to a hand injury, making him the fourth defensive lineman on the team to see his season end prematurely. Redding and second-year-man Anthony Bryant (5 tackles) are the likely starters at DT against Chicago.

LIONS OFFENSE VS. BEARS DEFENSE

Despite the fact that he has thrown more touchdown passes than interceptions in a game exactly twice this season (the Lions won neither game), Detroit appears set to give veteran Jon Kitna (3619 passing yards, 14 TD, 21 INT) his 15th start of the year on Sunday. Kitna, who has been sacked a league-high 55 times behind the Lions' injury-riddled line, has two touchdown passes versus eight interceptions in his last three games combined. Kitna threw for a season-low 135 yards against the Packers last Sunday. Starting wideouts Roy Williams (70 receptions, 4 TD) and Mike Furrey (77 receptions, 4 TD) combined for just three catches and 31 yards last week, though the team did receive a rare contribution from former No. 1 pick Mike Williams (4 receptions), who posted season-bests with three receptions and 42 yards. Furrey is 123 receiving yards shy of his first career 1,000-yard season, which would also make him and Roy Williams the first Lions teammates to hit the 1,000 mark in the same season since Johnnie Morton and Germane Crowell did so in 1999.

Kitna will be trying to attack what could be a depleted Bears secondary on Sunday. Starting cornerbacks Charles Tillman (back) and Nathan Vasher (hamstring) are both listed on the injury report, as is safety Todd Johnson (ankle), and it seems unlikely that Chicago would risk playing any of those players if they are less than 100 percent. Ricky Manning, Jr. (45 tackles, 5 INT, 2 sacks) and electrifying rookie Devin Hester (6 tackles) figure to see significant time at corner, with Chris Harris (46 tackles, 2 INT) and Danieal Manning (59 tackles, 2 INT) supporting them at the safety positions. Manning had two sacks and a forced fumble against Tampa Bay last week, and Harris registered his second interception of the year. In the pass rush, starting ends Adewale Ogunleye (39 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and Alex Brown (41 tackles, 6 sacks, 2 INT) could see less time than rookie Mark Anderson (24 tackles, 10 sacks) and trusty backup Israel Idonije (16 tackles).

The Lions are last in the league in rushing offense as Week 16 begins, and with starting running back Kevin Jones (689 rushing yards, 61 receptions, 8 TD) out for the year with a foot injury, offensive coordinator Mike Martz isn't likely to place establishing the run at the top of his list of directives on Sunday. Arlen Harris (85 rushing yards, 1 TD, 9 receptions) got the start last week, carrying nine times for 18 yards and catching a team-best five passes for 33 yards. Backup Aveion Cason (32 rushing yards, 3 receptions) rushed three times for six yards. Earlier this week, the Lions signed former Ram, Dolphin, and Eagle Lamar Gordon, who played under Martz in St. Louis in 2002 and 2003.

Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher (126 tackles, 3 INT) would rank at the top of most Bears fans' lists of players they wouldn't want to see placed at risk of injury in the final two games, and fellow LB starter Lance Briggs (116 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack) wouldn't be ranked far behind. Complicating matters for the Chicago "D" this week is the fact that third starter Hunter Hillenmeyer (38 tackles) is listed on the injury report with a thigh problem, and usual backup Leon Joe (7 tackles) has a hamstring problem, meaning sheer numbers could dictate either Urlacher or Briggs playing significant minutes. Brendon Ayanbadejo (24 tackles) and Rod Wilson (14 tackles) are likely to see a wealth of time at linebacker as well. The interior defensive line is already depleted due to a season-ending hamstring injury to Tommie Harris (28 tackles, 5 sacks) and a much-publicized suspension for fellow DT Tank Johnson (24 tackles, 3.5 sacks), meaning Alfonso Boone (20 tackles, 1 sack) and Ian Scott (17 tackles) should be the team's starters at tackle for a second straight week.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

It is easy to focus on the fact that the Bears might not be going at full throttle this week, though the notion of the team's perceived weakness without its starters might be a little overblown. Chicago's success has been based in part on the fact that it is one of the deepest teams in the league, and whatever 45 guys Lovie Smith chooses to suit up figure to be better than their Lions counterparts. Even with some backups playing major minutes, the Bears are still good enough to beat Detroit going away.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Bears 24, Lions 7

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