Yankees top Mariners
Baseball Betting Lines
05/13/2007 -
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Derek Jeter had three hits and capped a five-
run second inning with an RBI single, as the Yankees blew past the Seattle Mariners, 7-2, in the middle contest of a three-game series.
Matt DeSalvo (1-0), in his second major league start, got his first win after
allowing seven hits and two runs in 6 2/3 innings. He walked three and had two
strikeouts.
Johnny Damon doubled in a run in the second, while Jorge Posada, Doug
Mientkiewicz and Bobby Abreu each had RBI singles in the frame for New York,
which snapped a two-game skid. Posada and Hideki Matsui each had three hits
and scored twice.
Jose Vidro had three hits and scored once and Raul Ibanez drove in two runs
for the Mariners, who lost for the second time in three games. They had a
four-game home winning streak broken.
Miguel Batista (3-3) was pounded for 10 hits and seven runs over 2 1/3 innings
to suffer the loss.
The pitching rematch from Monday went to the advantage of DeSalvo, as the 26-
year-old righty threw well into the seventh before being lifted in favor of
Mike Myers. DeSalvo, who didn't get a decision in his major league debut last
Monday, a 3-2 Yankee loss, exited with runners on second and third. Myers then
retired Ibanez on a grounder to end the seventh.
Jason Giambi walked to start the second inning and Matsui doubled to left.
Posada and Mientkiewicz followed with RBI base hits. One out later, Damon
doubled to left-center field for a 3-0 lead. Abreu and Jeter followed with RBI
line singles to right.
The Yankees padded their lead to 7-0 in the third courtesy of an error on
right fielder Jose Guillen. Matsui and Posada singled, and the runners
advanced on a bunt by Mientkiewicz. Cano then singled to right to drive in a
run, and Posada came home on Guillen's error.
Ibanez tripled in Ichiro Suzuki and Vidro in the bottom of the third, but the
Mariners left a runner at third when DeSalvo retired the final two hitters.
Mariano Rivera closed out the game in the ninth, but not before two men
reached base for Seattle, one courtesy of an error on Mientkiewicz. However,
Jose Lopez was tagged out in a rundown between third and home, and Vidro
grounded into a double-play to end the game.
Game Notes
Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, on the disabled list due to a strained forearm,
is slated to return Tuesday for a home start versus the Angels...Giambi
returned to the Yankee starting lineup for the first time in four games after
being sidelined due to bone spurs in his left heel. He ended 0-for-4 with a
pair of strikeouts and scored once...The Yankees hadn't committed an error in
any of their last nine games until Mientkiewicz' in the ninth inning...Jeter
has gone errorless in his last 23 games after committing six errors in the
first 11 games of the season...Ibanez has 601 RBI for his career.
<< Looper, Cards shoutout Padres
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Braden Looper baffled San Diego hitters for
seven innings, and the St. Louis Cardinals topped the Padres, 5-0, in the
second of a three-game set.
Looper (5-2) was dominant, holding the Padres to th
<< U.S. women rout Canada
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Abby Wambach scored twice as the United States
Women's National Team scored on six of its seven shots on goal to extend its
unbeaten streak to 41 games with a 6-2 win over Canada on Saturday night.
Lindsay
<< Penny, Dodgers down Reds
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brad Penny allowed just four hits and
one run over 6 1/3 innings to lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to a 7-3 win over
the Cincinnati Reds in the second of a three-game series at Dodger Stadium.
Penny
<< Looper, Cards shut out Padres
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Braden Looper baffled San Diego hitters for
seven innings, and the St. Louis Cardinals topped the Padres, 5-0, in the
second of a three-game set.
Looper (5-2) was dominant, holding the Padres to th
<< Twellman leads Revolution over Galaxy
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Taylor Twellman scored twice in the second half,
including the game-winner seconds after Los Angeles tied the match in the 84th
minute, as New England escaped with a 3-2 victory on Saturday night.
Twellman scor
Zimmerman's 9th-inning slam ends marathon between Nats and Marlins >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Zimmerman's grand slam with two outs in
the bottom of the ninth inning capped a long night of baseball in the nation's
capital, as the Nationals rallied for a 7-3 win over Florida in a game that
totaled
Pistons attempt to sweep Bulls out of playoffs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Pistons try to sweep the Chicago Bulls out of
the playoffs, as the teams continue their Eastern Conference semifinals series
today at the United Center.
The top-seeded Pistons lead this best-of-seven series 3-
Warriors try to even West semis with Jazz >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Golden State Warriors try to even their Western
Conference semifinals series with the Utah Jazz at two games apiece, as the
teams square off tonight at ORACLE Arena.
Game 5 of this best-of-seven series is scheduled fo
Westwood's impressive run nets win in Spain >>
Marbella, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lee Westwood capped an impressive weekend
run with a five-under 67 Sunday to win the European Tour's Valle Romano Open
de Andalucia, his first victory in nearly four years.
Westwood went a combined 20
Red Wings battle Ducks in Game 2 of West finals >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Red Wings will try to extend their lead in the
Western Conference finals this evening, when they open the doors of Joe Louis
Arena for Game 2 against the Anaheim Ducks.
The Red Wings opened this best-of-seven s
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
read more
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